CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
11%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
2%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
77%
-5.6pp
18%
Draw
15%
+2.3pp
11%
Away Win
8%
+3.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 11%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.33/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.93
-39% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
460 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Spartak Varna
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
29.11.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-1 HT 0-1 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia BUL1
28.07.2024 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia 2-2 HT 2-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
03.05.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 3-3 HT 0-0 CSKA 1948 Sofia CSKA 1948 Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA 1948 Sofia
1-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA 1948 Sofia and Spartak Varna shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CSKA 1948 Sofia at 71% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CSKA 1948 Sofia had 52% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 48%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for CSKA 1948 Sofia and 2.00 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split CSKA 1948 Sofia 71%, draw 18%, Spartak Varna 11%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CSKA 1948 Sofia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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