Metz 0-3 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.71
Draw
24%
3.94
Away Pick
58%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
2.07
Over
48%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.85
2-3
41%
1.82
4-5
20%
3.05
6+
10%
9.82
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.85 — our 29% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.9
1/2
8%
21.5
1/X
7%
17.15
X/1
6%
11.15
X/2
16%
4.11
X/X
8%
5.9
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
34%
1.95
2/X
9%
15.25
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Metz The Market 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya The Market 64%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Bad Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
0.92 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.95
1.43 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.00
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Average
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 478 · 85%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
17.9 Crosses 22.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Marsilya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.41
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
248 Passes 474
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
18.08.2023 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
13.02.2022 Metz Metz 1-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
07.11.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
23.05.2021 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
26.09.2020 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
0-3
AWAY Marsilya
0.14 xG 2.71
38% Ball Possession 62%
4 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 4
322 Passes 586
86% Pass Accuracy 92%
8 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 9
REVIEW Metz vs Marsilya
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Marsilya made light work of Metz 3-0 on their travels. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

The goals picture was genuinely open: 48% for over 2.5, 49% on both teams scoring. If anything the market was more convinced: the over-2.5 price stood at 1.72, roughly 58%.

By the numbers, Metz had 38% of the ball to Marsilya's 62%, shots finished 4-21, expected goals 0.14 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Metz and 1.17 for Marsilya.

Metz vs Marsilya Result & Final Score

Metz 0-3 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Metz vs Marsilya Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Metz 18%, draw 24%, Marsilya 58%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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