Auxerre 1-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Oct 2025

Auxerre
1-2 HT 0-1
Lens
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒22:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Auxerre vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.95
Over
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.67
No
48%
2.07
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
29%
3.48
2-3
38%
1.79
4-5
23%
3.26
6+
10%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.48 — our 29% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.21
1/2
10%
23.55
1/X
5%
13.85
X/1
10%
7.24
X/2
15%
4.82
X/X
11%
5.0
2/1
7%
33.5
2/2
15%
2.78
2/X
9%
13.15
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Auxerre v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Auxerre The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens The Market 49%
Great Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Great Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.66 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.39
1.28 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.51
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Weak
Great Defensevs comparable teams Strong
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
17.3 Crosses 18.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Auxerre vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lens
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 2.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
298 Passes 431
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.04.2025 Lens Lens 0-4 HT 0-3 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
14.12.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 2-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
03.06.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-3 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
14.01.2023 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
21.10.2019 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
09.03.2019 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2

Auxerre 1-2 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-2
AWAY Lens
1.71 xG 0.41
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
420 Passes 324
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 6
REVIEW Auxerre vs Lens
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lens edged past Auxerre 2-1 on their travels. Half-time: 0-1.

The model refused to pick a side here (35% / 25% / 40%); Lens picked one for it.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.67, roughly 60%.

By the numbers, Auxerre had 57% of the ball to Lens's 43%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.71 to 0.41 — by the quality of chances, Auxerre deserved more.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 1.33 for Lens.

Auxerre vs Lens Result & Final Score

Auxerre 1-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Auxerre vs Lens Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 35%, draw 25%, Lens 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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