Lens 0-4 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 27 Apr 2025

Lens
0-4 HT 0-3
Auxerre
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lens vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.21
Over Pick
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
21%
4.41
2-3
38%
1.89
4-5
29%
2.86
6+
12%
8.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.96
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.85
X/1
21%
4.28
X/2
8%
11.2
X/X
10%
6.28
2/1
6%
20.65
2/2
9%
8.49
2/X ✗
10%
16.65
Value flag · 2/X at 16.65 — our 10% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.6pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.3pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lens v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.98/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.73
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
24.6 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Lens vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Auxerre
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.19 xG 1.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.12.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 2-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
03.06.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-3 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
14.01.2023 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
21.10.2019 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
09.03.2019 Lens Lens 2-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
06.10.2018 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR2

Lens 0-4 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
0-4
AWAY Auxerre
1.44 xG 2.65
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 1
560 Passes 275
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lens vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre swept aside Lens 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was Lens at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Lens had 66% of the ball to Auxerre's 34%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.44 to 2.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lens and 0.67 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Lens vs Auxerre?

Lens 0-4 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lens 48%, draw 28%, Auxerre 24%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lens), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
27 Apr 2025
16:00 Angers vs Lille Analysis →
18:15 Montpellier vs Reims Analysis →
18:15 Nantes vs Toulouse Analysis →
21:45 Marsilya vs Brest Analysis →