Kagoshima United 0-3 Tochigi City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.6pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi City EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.69/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/0.65
+21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +96%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.5 Crosses 19.1
0.8 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tochigi City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
28.06.2025 Tochigi City Tochigi City 2-1 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
0-3
AWAY Tochigi City
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
388 Passes 361
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Tochigi City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tochigi City ran out comfortable winners over Kagoshima United 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Kagoshima United at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 52% of the ball to Tochigi City's 48%, shots finished 9-16.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Tochigi City?

Kagoshima United 0-3 Tochigi City in the Japan - J3 League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Tochigi City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 46%, draw 27%, Tochigi City 27%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✗ BTTS Yes
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