Fakel 2-1 Volga Ulyanovsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 4 Oct 2025

Fakel
2-1 HT 2-1
Volga Ulyanovsk
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Russia - FNL – 2025/2026

Fakel vs Volga Ulyanovsk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
63%
1.61
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
1.59
Over
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.27
No
53%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
39%
4-5
19%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
29%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Fakel win — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
63%
Home Win
58%
+4.6pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.9pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.4pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fakel v Volga Ulyanovsk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Volga Ulyanovsk The Market 19%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.26/0.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.22
-24% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +23%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Fakel 2-1 Volga Ulyanovsk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
2-1
AWAY Volga Ulyanovsk
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Volga Ulyanovsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel nicked a narrow win over Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fakel as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fakel had 49% of the ball to Volga Ulyanovsk's 51%, shots finished 10-12.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Volga Ulyanovsk?

Fakel 2-1 Volga Ulyanovsk in the Russia - FNL on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Volga Ulyanovsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Fakel 63%, draw 20%, Volga Ulyanovsk 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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