Empoli 1-0 Como — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 Nov 2024

Empoli
1-0 HT 0-0
Como
📅04/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.31
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.27
6+ Goals
9%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
15%
5.45
X/2 EV+ ✗
20%
5.27
X/X
14%
3.58
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
12%
3.99
2/X
6%
13.8
Value flag · X/2 at 5.27 — our 20% vs market 14.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
31%
-5.1pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.8pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Como EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
1.38/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.30
-13% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +29%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
17.5 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Como
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
02.02.2003 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Como Como İTA
14.09.2002 Como Como 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
09.12.2001 Empoli Empoli 0-1 HT 0-0 Como Como İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
1-0
AWAY Como
0.61 xG 0.40
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
244 Passes 388
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Como
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli edged past Como 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Empoli found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Empoli had 41% of the ball to Como's 59%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.61 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Empoli and 0.33 for Como.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Como?

Empoli 1-0 Como in the Italy - Serie A on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Como?

Before kick-off our model rated an Como win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Empoli 36%, draw 26%, Como 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Como) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Como) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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