Parma 0-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 Nov 2024

Parma
0-1 HT 0-0
Genoa
📅04/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.27
6+ Goals
13%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.24
X/2
10%
8.58
X/X
13%
5.1
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
13%
6.31
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
2.05/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.16
+4% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
20.6 Crosses 16.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Genoa
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.67 xG 1.44
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
309 Passes 386
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2023 Parma Parma 2-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTB
03.09.2022 Genoa Genoa 3-3 HT 2-2 Parma Parma İTB
19.03.2021 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
30.11.2020 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
23.06.2020 Genoa Genoa 1-4 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTA
20.10.2019 Parma Parma 5-1 HT 3-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
0-1
AWAY Genoa
1.11 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 15
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
355 Passes 271
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Parma vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa squeezed past Parma 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Parma at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Parma had 55% of the ball to Genoa's 45%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.11 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parma had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Parma and 1.33 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Parma vs Genoa?

Parma 0-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Parma 42%, draw 28%, Genoa 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✗ BTTS Yes
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