Lazio vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lazio v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals
Lazio vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Cagliari
İTA
0-3
HT 0-2
Lazio
İTA
2-2
HT 1-0
Cagliari
İTA
1-0
HT 0-0
Cagliari
İTA
0-2
HT 0-1
Lazio
İTA
Lazio 2-1 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics
Lazio nicked a narrow win over Cagliari 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Lazio had 54% of the ball to Cagliari's 46%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.91 to 0.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lazio's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lazio and 0.50 for Cagliari.
What was the final score of Lazio vs Cagliari?
Lazio 2-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lazio vs Cagliari?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lazio 55%, draw 27%, Cagliari 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.