Al Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Al Shorta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.29
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.26
2-3 Goals
49%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
2.99
6+ Goals
8%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.26 — our 23% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.48
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
24.45
X/1
21%
3.33
X/2
9%
21.2
X/X
8%
7.61
2/1
5%
24.45
2/2
4%
17.55
2/X
6%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
73%
-12.1pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.4pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.6pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shorta EU Bookmakers 12%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.19/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.93
-53% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -86% / -23%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
421 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 74%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.2
14.5 Crosses 11.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Shorta
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.05 xG 0.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
372 Passes 324
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.04.2021 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Shorta Al Shorta AŞMP
21.04.2021 Al Shorta Al Shorta 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah AŞMP
17.09.2020 Al Shorta Al Shorta 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah AŞMP
14.09.2020 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Shorta Al Shorta AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
5-1
AWAY Al Shorta
5.88 xG 1.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
25 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
478 Passes 233
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
35 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shorta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah ran out comfortable winners over Al Shorta 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahli Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 62% of the ball to Al Shorta's 38%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 5.88 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Jeddah had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.75 for Al Shorta.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shorta?

Al Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Al Shorta in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shorta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 61%, draw 22%, Al Shorta 17%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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