Persepolis 1-1 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.74
Over 2.5
38%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.05
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
18%
4.34
X/2
15%
7.19
X/X
21%
4.36
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
5%
5.62
2/X
4%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.4pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.5pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
54%
+8.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
46%
-8.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persepolis EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 29%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.64/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
-2% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / -46%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 81%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
24.3 Crosses 28.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Persepolis
1-1
AWAY Al Gharafa
2.27 xG 1.74
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 Passes 233
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 31
24 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Persepolis vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persepolis and Al Gharafa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Persepolis at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Persepolis had 57% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 43%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.27 to 1.74.

What was the final score of Persepolis vs Al Gharafa?

Persepolis 1-1 Al Gharafa in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persepolis vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persepolis win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Persepolis 42%, draw 34%, Al Gharafa 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Persepolis), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Persepolis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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