Western United 0-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
14%
7.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.63
1/2
8%
21.85
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
13%
7.18
X/2
15%
4.84
X/X
9%
5.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
30.5
2/2
23%
2.69
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
45%
Away Win
46%
-0.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.9pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western United EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -17%
1.64/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.62
-5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 83%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
19.8 Crosses 18.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western United
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Melbourne City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.23 xG 1.65
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
348 Passes 480
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
07.01.2024 Western United Western United 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
21.10.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
22.04.2023 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
07.01.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 3-0 Western United Western United AVUS
07.10.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western United
0-1
AWAY Melbourne City
1.01 xG 0.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
291 Passes 404
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Western United vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Western United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Western United had 44% of the ball to Melbourne City's 56%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Western United and 2.17 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Western United vs Melbourne City?

Western United 0-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western United vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Western United 30%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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