Melbourne City 1-0 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.33
2-3 Goals
40%
2.23
4-5 Goals
27%
2.44
6+ Goals
15%
4.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.35
X/1
16%
3.97
X/2
10%
14.6
X/X
10%
8.33
2/1
6%
18.25
2/2
10%
9.39
2/X
5%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.8pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.5pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.2pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +20%
2.04/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.87
+38% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
19.2 Crosses 15.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Western United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.12
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
488 Passes 316
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.01.2024 Western United Western United 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
21.10.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
22.04.2023 Western United Western United 1-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
07.01.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 3-0 Western United Western United AVUS
07.10.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Western United Western United AVUS
28.05.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-2 HT 0-2 Western United Western United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Western United
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
409 Passes 417
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City edged past Western United 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne City had 50% of the ball to Western United's 50%, shots finished 15-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melbourne City and 1.17 for Western United.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Western United?

Melbourne City 1-0 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 54%, draw 22%, Western United 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
28 Apr 2024
08:00 Sydney vs Perth Glory Analysis →