CA River Plate 0-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.4
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
57%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
16%
+4.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
57%
Away Win
62%
-4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.4pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 66%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +13%
0.94/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.75
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +19%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
267 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA River Plate
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
340 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-3 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
30.04.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 2-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
22.10.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
19.03.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
08.03.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 CA Penarol CA Penarol CON CSA
17.10.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA River Plate
0-1
AWAY CA Penarol
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 7
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA River Plate vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol nicked a narrow win over CA River Plate 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, CA River Plate had 31% of the ball to CA Penarol's 69%, shots finished 4-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for CA River Plate and 2.50 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

CA River Plate 0-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split CA River Plate 20%, draw 23%, CA Penarol 57%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol)
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