CA River Plate 1-3 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.09
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
50%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
17%
+6.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
50%
Away Win
59%
-8.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
0.65/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.76
-22% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA River Plate
0W-2D-4L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
340 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-0 HT 2-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
22.10.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-3 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
19.03.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
08.03.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 CA Penarol CA Penarol CON CSA
17.10.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
29.05.2022 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA River Plate
1-3
AWAY CA Penarol
30% Ball Possession 70%
3 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA River Plate vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol got the better of CA River Plate 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, CA River Plate had 30% of the ball to CA Penarol's 70%, shots finished 3-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for CA River Plate and 2.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

CA River Plate 1-3 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA River Plate vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CA River Plate 24%, draw 26%, CA Penarol 50%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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