Cerro 0-1 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.2pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +5%
1.19/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.24
-2% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cerro Largo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.03.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
30.11.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
02.07.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
29.04.2023 Cerro Cerro 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
25.03.2021 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
08.10.2020 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-1 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
0-1
AWAY Cerro Largo
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Cerro 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cerro Largo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cerro had 43% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 57%, shots finished 6-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cerro and 0.67 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Cerro 0-1 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cerro 38%, draw 28%, Cerro Largo 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cerro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cerro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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