New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.19
6+ Goals
8%
20.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.33/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.73
+2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.1 Crosses 16.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.02 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
330 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.10.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
31.03.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
08.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
22.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-3 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
25.05.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 7-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
17.04.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.10 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
313 Passes 325
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past Phoenix Rising 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 49% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 51%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.10 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for New Mexico United and 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 42%, draw 29%, Phoenix Rising 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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