Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Phoenix Rising v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Phoenix Rising 0-1 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Phoenix Rising 1-0 on their travels.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Phoenix Rising at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 52% for over 2.5, 53% on both teams scoring.
On the day, possession split 60% to 40% in Phoenix Rising's favour, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.36 to 2.26 — on chances created, New Mexico United won this by more than the scoreboard admits.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Phoenix Rising against 2.33 for New Mexico United.
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United Result & Final Score
Phoenix Rising 0 - 1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 58%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.