Phoenix Rising 0-1 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.97
Over 2.5
42%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.3
6+ Goals
8%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 31% vs market 22.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.0pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 24%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.63/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.45
-4% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.0 Crosses 15.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
4W-0D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.43 xG 1.81
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 352
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
22.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-3 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
25.05.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 7-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
17.04.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
29.08.2021 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-2 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
09.08.2020 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 5-2 HT 2-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
0-1
AWAY New Mexico United
0.36 xG 2.26
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 5
364 Passes 229
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United nicked a narrow win over Phoenix Rising 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Phoenix Rising at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 60% of the ball to New Mexico United's 40%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.36 to 2.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold New Mexico United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Phoenix Rising and 2.33 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?

Phoenix Rising 0-1 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 46%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Phoenix Rising) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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