San Antonio 2-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.26
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.26 — our 24% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.2pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.9pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Antonio EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.60/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.48
-3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
21.1 Crosses 18.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Antonio
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.70 xG 1.07
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 7
210 Passes 254
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
25 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2023 San Antonio San Antonio 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
02.04.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
12.06.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 2-3 HT 1-2 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
01.05.2022 San Antonio San Antonio 6-0 HT 3-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Antonio
2-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.28 xG 0.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 8
262 Passes 236
70% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH San Antonio vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Antonio nicked a narrow win over Monterey Bay 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had San Antonio as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, San Antonio had 52% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 48%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.28 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, San Antonio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for San Antonio and 0.75 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of San Antonio vs Monterey Bay?

San Antonio 2-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Antonio vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Antonio win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split San Antonio 50%, draw 28%, Monterey Bay 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Antonio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (San Antonio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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