Orange County SC 1-0 FC Tulsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.91
2-3 Goals
44%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 25% vs market 20.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +6%
1.26/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.51
-16% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
417 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
17.2 Crosses 13.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
5W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Tulsa
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.39 xG 1.19
57% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
418 Passes 291
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.06.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-3 HT 0-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
14.05.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 5-1 HT 5-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
22.09.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
17.03.2019 Orange County SC Orange County SC 3-5 HT 2-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
24.06.2018 Orange County SC Orange County SC 6-1 HT 2-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
31.03.2018 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-5 HT 0-3 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
1-0
AWAY FC Tulsa
0.43 xG 0.91
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
293 Passes 349
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC edged past FC Tulsa 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orange County SC as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Orange County SC had 47% of the ball to FC Tulsa's 53%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.43 to 0.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured FC Tulsa.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orange County SC had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for Orange County SC and 1.17 for FC Tulsa.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?

Orange County SC 1-0 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 49%, draw 24%, FC Tulsa 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orange County SC) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ BTTS Yes
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