Sacramento Republic 1-0 Memphis 901 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 29% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-11.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Memphis 901 EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.45/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.65
-17% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
21.2 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Memphis 901
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 0.72
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
363 Passes 355
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-1 HT 0-0 Memphis 901 Memphis 901 USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
1-0
AWAY Memphis 901
2.00 xG 0.35
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
359 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Memphis 901
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic nicked a narrow win over Memphis 901 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sacramento Republic as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 57% of the ball to Memphis 901's 43%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.00 to 0.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sacramento Republic's control.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Memphis 901?

Sacramento Republic 1-0 Memphis 901 in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Memphis 901?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 47%, draw 27%, Memphis 901 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sacramento Republic), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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