Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 Rhode Island — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
34%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.01
6+ Goals
7%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 26% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
56%
-15.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.2pp
34%
Away Win
21%
+13.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.72/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.09
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +80% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.2 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
4-1
AWAY Rhode Island
1.65 xG 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
223 Passes 266
71% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies ran out comfortable winners over Rhode Island 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 47% of the ball to Rhode Island's 53%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.65 to 1.40.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 Rhode Island in the USL Championship on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 41%, draw 25%, Rhode Island 34%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ BTTS No
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