New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
24%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -17%
1.32/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.76
+0% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
15.1 Crosses 16.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.92 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
31.03.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
08.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
22.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-3 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
25.05.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 7-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
17.04.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-0 HT 1-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
29.08.2021 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-2 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-2
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.28 xG 1.58
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
347 Passes 276
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising edged past New Mexico United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 56% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 44%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.28 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for New Mexico United and 1.33 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 49%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United)
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