New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
1-3
HT 0-1
Phoenix Rising
USLP
7-0
HT 4-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
1-0
HT 1-0
New Mexico United
USLP
3-2
HT 0-1
New Mexico United
USLP
New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Phoenix Rising edged past New Mexico United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, New Mexico United had 56% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 44%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.28 to 1.58.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for New Mexico United and 1.33 for Phoenix Rising.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 49%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.