Sacramento Republic 2-2 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Oct 2024

📅10/10/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.27
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.5pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.5pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.50/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.61
-26% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
23.5 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.06 xG 0.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
468 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.06.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
08.05.2024 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay ABDK
06.08.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-1 HT 0-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
18.06.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 0-1 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
14.08.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
26.06.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
2-2
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.52 xG 0.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
411 Passes 328
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sacramento Republic and Monterey Bay shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 55% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 45%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.52 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sacramento Republic and 0.50 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?

Sacramento Republic 2-2 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 10/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 53%, draw 25%, Monterey Bay 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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