Fiorentina 2-2 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.07
Over
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No Pick
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.95
2-3
39%
1.86
4-5
24%
3.19
6+
10%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.95 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.58
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
22.1
X/1
18%
3.42
X/2
7%
18.85
X/X
11%
6.85
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
9%
15.9
2/X
7%
23.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-17.7pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.6pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.94/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.04
-32% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +22%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
35.4 Crosses 13.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Empoli
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 0.69
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
439 Passes 220
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
18.02.2024 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
23.10.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
19.02.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
21.08.2022 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
03.04.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
2-2
AWAY Empoli
2.13 xG 1.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
411 Passes 247
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Empoli couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 60% of the ball to Empoli's 40%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.13 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fiorentina and 0.67 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Empoli?

Fiorentina 2-2 Empoli in the Italy - Cup on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 53%, draw 25%, Empoli 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ BTTS No
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