Shabab Al Ahli 3-2 Nasaf Qarshi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
30%
3.8
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.18
2-3 Goals
46%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 25% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-10.6pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.8pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
291 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shabab Al Ahli
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
02.10.2024 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 2-1 HT 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AFCŞL2
07.04.2015 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 0-1 HT 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
18.03.2015 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 0-0 HT 0-0 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shabab Al Ahli
3-2
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 1
521 Passes 337
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 11
7 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shabab Al Ahli vs Nasaf Qarshi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shabab Al Ahli nicked a narrow win over Nasaf Qarshi 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shabab Al Ahli as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Shabab Al Ahli had 59% of the ball to Nasaf Qarshi's 41%, shots finished 13-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shabab Al Ahli and 0.67 for Nasaf Qarshi.

What was the final score of Shabab Al Ahli vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Shabab Al Ahli 3-2 Nasaf Qarshi in the AFCŞL2 on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shabab Al Ahli vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shabab Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Shabab Al Ahli 46%, draw 30%, Nasaf Qarshi 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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