Tottenham 1-0 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 5 Jan 2024

Tottenham
1-0 HT 0-0
Burnley
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Tottenham vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
24%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
3.14
Over 2.5
61%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.28
2-3 Goals
36%
2.21
4-5 Goals
32%
2.4
6+ Goals
13%
4.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.53
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.2
X/1
20%
3.82
X/2
7%
17.15
X/X
6%
8.91
2/1
6%
18.55
2/2
11%
11.2
2/X
8%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-13.6pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
13%
+11.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
28%
+10.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
72%
-10.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tottenham v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
2.04/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/3.69
-21% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / -56%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
432 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
36.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
26.8 Crosses 9.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 0.9

Tottenham vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Burnley
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.54 xG 0.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
522 Passes 284
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.09.2023 Burnley Burnley 2-5 HT 1-2 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
15.05.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
23.02.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
27.10.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNLK
28.02.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 4-0 HT 3-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
26.10.2020 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP

Tottenham 1-0 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
1-0
AWAY Burnley
1.30 xG 1.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
529 Passes 264
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
41 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham edged past Burnley 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tottenham as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tottenham had 63% of the ball to Burnley's 37%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.30 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tottenham had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tottenham and 0.50 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Burnley?

Tottenham 1-0 Burnley in the England - FA Cup on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 56%, draw 20%, Burnley 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tottenham) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tottenham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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