Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 Jan 2024

Beşiktaş
1-3 HT 1-1
Kasımpaşa
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.82
2-3 Goals
39%
2.05
4-5 Goals
24%
2.62
6+ Goals
12%
6.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
11%
4.28
X/2
8%
9.68
X/X
12%
6.59
2/1
6%
19.25
2/2
12%
6.27
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+2.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.1pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Beşiktaş v Kasımpaşa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.88/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.62
+1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
23.0 Crosses 18.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beşiktaş
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.06 xG 1.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
469 Passes 265
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.06.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-5 HT 0-2 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
07.01.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 2-1 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
25.04.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0-3 HT 0-2 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
03.12.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-1 HT 0-1 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
04.04.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
04.12.2020 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 3-0 HT 1-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL

Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beşiktaş
1-3
AWAY Kasımpaşa
0.81 xG 1.27
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
299 Passes 217
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa beat Beşiktaş 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Beşiktaş at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Beşiktaş had 56% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 44%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.81 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beşiktaş had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.33 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?

Beşiktaş 1-3 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beşiktaş vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beşiktaş win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Beşiktaş 51%, draw 24%, Kasımpaşa 25%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Beşiktaş), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beşiktaş) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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