Estrela 2-4 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.53
6+ Goals
10%
24.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.42
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
16%
4.96
X/2
12%
6.4
X/X
14%
3.76
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
10%
4.93
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.5pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.2pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -21%
1.27/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.51
+12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
21.1 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Estoril
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
292 Passes 336
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
25.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-4
AWAY Estoril
0.92 xG 2.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
243 Passes 291
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril beat Estrela 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 48% of the ball to Estoril's 52%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.92 to 2.28.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela and 1.00 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Estoril?

Estrela 2-4 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estrela 43%, draw 28%, Estoril 29%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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