Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Jan 2025

Casa Pia
1-1 HT 1-1
Famalicao
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Casa Pia vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
37%
3.04
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.54
Over 2.5
40%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.88
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.97
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
10%
4.35
X/2
10%
7.14
X/X
20%
3.8
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
8%
5.98
2/X
10%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.0pp
37%
Draw
29%
+7.9pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-2.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -12%
1.09/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.31
-17% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.1 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9

Casa Pia vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.90 xG 0.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
336 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.05.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.01.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
13.03.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
18.09.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR

Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-1
AWAY Famalicao
0.71 xG 1.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 14
5 Corners 7
355 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia and Famalicao couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 37% / 23%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Casa Pia had 55% of the ball to Famalicao's 45%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.71 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Casa Pia and 1.00 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Famalicao?

Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 40%, draw 37%, Famalicao 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Casa Pia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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