Famalicao 1-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.52 — our 27% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-9.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 22%
-17% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.64/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.25
-18% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +29%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 78%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
25.8 Crosses 17.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.75 xG 0.81
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
330 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
13.03.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
18.09.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-2
AWAY Casa Pia
0.48 xG 1.19
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
391 Passes 286
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 7
22 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia edged past Famalicao 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Famalicao had 56% of the ball to Casa Pia's 44%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.48 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Famalicao had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 0.33 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Casa Pia?

Famalicao 1-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 50%, draw 23%, Casa Pia 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Famalicao), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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