San Martin San Juan 1-0 Alvarado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
55%
-7.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Martin San Juan EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Alvarado EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.58/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.38
+12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
395 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 182 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Martin San Juan
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Alvarado
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
10.06.2023 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 1-1 HT 1-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
05.02.2023 Alvarado Alvarado 0-0 HT 0-0 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan ARJPBN
07.05.2022 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 0-0 HT 0-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
13.12.2020 Alvarado Alvarado 0-1 HT 0-1 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan ARJPBN
03.12.2019 San Martin San Juan San Martin San Juan 1-1 HT 0-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Martin San Juan
1-0
AWAY Alvarado
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
8 Corners 5
POST-MATCH San Martin San Juan vs Alvarado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Martin San Juan nicked a narrow win over Alvarado 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had San Martin San Juan as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, San Martin San Juan had 50% of the ball to Alvarado's 50%, shots finished 11-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, San Martin San Juan had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for San Martin San Juan and 0.40 for Alvarado.

What was the final score of San Martin San Juan vs Alvarado?

San Martin San Juan 1-0 Alvarado in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Martin San Juan vs Alvarado?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Martin San Juan win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split San Martin San Juan 48%, draw 30%, Alvarado 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Martin San Juan), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (San Martin San Juan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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