Aguilas Doradas 0-3 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.02/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.14
+7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
16.9 Crosses 14.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguilas Doradas
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
321 Passes 209
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 1-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOLK
28.09.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
31.08.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
05.06.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.06.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
29.01.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
0-3
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.82 xG 0.55
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
388 Passes 116
82% Pass Accuracy 58%
17 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional swept aside Aguilas Doradas 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aguilas Doradas at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 70% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 30%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 0.82 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Aguilas Doradas and 1.17 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Atletico Nacional?

Aguilas Doradas 0-3 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 43%, draw 28%, Atletico Nacional 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Aguilas Doradas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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