Ethiopian Insurance 0-1 Fasil Ketema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 5 Feb 2025

📅05/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.67
No
66%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.1pp
29%
Draw
32%
-3.2pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+10.3pp
34%
BTTS Yes
33%
+0.2pp
66%
BTTS No
67%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ethiopian Insurance EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 23%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
2.36/0.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.66
+135% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +74%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
259 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ethiopian Insurance
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Fasil Ketema
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 Ethiopian Insurance Ethiopian Insurance 0-2 HT 0-0 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ethiopian Insurance
0-1
AWAY Fasil Ketema
64% Ball Possession 36%
5 Total Shots 4
0 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ethiopian Insurance vs Fasil Ketema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema nicked a narrow win over Ethiopian Insurance 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Ethiopian Insurance at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ethiopian Insurance had 64% of the ball to Fasil Ketema's 36%, shots finished 5-4.

What was the final score of Ethiopian Insurance vs Fasil Ketema?

Ethiopian Insurance 0-1 Fasil Ketema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ethiopian Insurance vs Fasil Ketema?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ethiopian Insurance win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ethiopian Insurance 41%, draw 29%, Fasil Ketema 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ethiopian Insurance) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ethiopian Insurance) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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