Toulouse 0-2 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 5 Feb 2025

📅05/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
53%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.95
Over
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.35
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
25%
3.32
6+
12%
12.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.97
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.85
X/1
19%
3.95
X/2
8%
10.9
X/X
12%
5.54
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
6%
9.07
2/X
6%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Toulouse win — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp The Market 21%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.98/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.11/2.82
+3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -87% / -40%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Guingamp
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.67 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
375 Passes 265
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.04.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 2-4 HT 2-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
30.10.2021 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
12.04.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
05.12.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 2-2 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
10.03.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 1-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR1
01.09.2018 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 1-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
0-2
AWAY Guingamp
0.80 xG 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
368 Passes 404
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp saw off Toulouse 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Toulouse had 49% of the ball to Guingamp's 51%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.80 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toulouse and 1.33 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Guingamp?

Toulouse 0-2 Guingamp in the France - Cup on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 53%, draw 25%, Guingamp 22%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Toulouse), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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