Sporting CP 3-2 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 5 Feb 2026

Sporting CP
3-2 HT 1-0
AVS
📅05/02/2026 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

Sporting CP vs AVS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.16
Draw
13%
7.78
Away
10%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.17
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.65
2-3 Goals
40%
2.29
4-5 Goals
25%
2.37
6+ Goals
14%
4.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1.19
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
35.0
X/1
17%
4.01
X/2
3%
35.0
X/X
5%
14.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
2/2
3%
35.0
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
82%
-5.5pp
13%
Draw
10%
+3.0pp
10%
Away Win
7%
+2.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-11.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v AVS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +82% / +82%
3.75/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+25% / +140% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / –
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
428 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 75%
42.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.0 Crosses –
1.3 Yellow Cards 5.0

Sporting CP vs AVS Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
2W-1D-0L
AWAY AVS
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.00 xG 0.62
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
486 Passes 262
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.12.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 6-0 HT 3-0 AVS AVS POR
23.02.2025 AVS AVS 2-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
22.09.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 AVS AVS POR

Sporting CP 3-2 AVS — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-2
AWAY AVS
3.42 xG 2.01
73% Ball Possession 27%
30 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 3
716 Passes 210
89% Pass Accuracy 71%
61 Box Touches 16
40 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP nicked a narrow win over AVS 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting CP had 73% of the ball to AVS's 27%, shots finished 30-11, expected goals 3.42 to 2.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting CP's control.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for AVS.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs AVS?

Sporting CP 3-2 AVS in the Portugal - Cup on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 77%, draw 13%, AVS 10%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5
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