AVS 2-2 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
55%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.2 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
13.4
1/2
6%
23.4
1/X
6%
22.1
X/1
8%
15.05
X/2
17%
3.72
X/X
6%
6.29
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.66
2/X
8%
18.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
14%
+10.9pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.6pp
55%
Away Win
67%
-11.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 71%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
0.79/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/0.68
+3% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +0%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
11.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.9
13.4 Crosses 22.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.07 xG 1.76
36% Ball Possession 64%
4 Total Shots 23
0 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 9
299 Passes 587
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
5 Box Touches 56
9 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 0
22.09.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 AVS AVS POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
2-2
AWAY Sporting CP
1.14 xG 1.54
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
290 Passes 410
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AVS vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS and Sporting CP couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting CP at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AVS had 43% of the ball to Sporting CP's 57%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.14 to 1.54.

What was the final score of AVS vs Sporting CP?

AVS 2-2 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AVS 25%, draw 20%, Sporting CP 55%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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