Arouca 2-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.68
Over 2.5
32%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.95
No
62%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.65
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
4.12
6+ Goals
7%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 35% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.61
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
15%
4.35
X/2
9%
7.88
X/X
14%
4.23
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.5
2/X
5%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.8pp
68%
Under 2.5
56%
+12.4pp
32%
Over 2.5
44%
-12.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.4pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 27%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
1.46/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.29
+7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 74%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
17.9 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Farense
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.17 xG 1.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
379 Passes 231
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 1-2 Farense Farense POK
22.09.2024 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
30.03.2024 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
06.11.2023 Farense Farense 2-0 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.10.2018 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
2-2
AWAY Farense
1.70 xG 0.91
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
308 Passes 158
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca and Farense shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arouca had 61% of the ball to Farense's 39%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.70 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Arouca and 1.20 for Farense.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Farense?

Arouca 2-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arouca 44%, draw 30%, Farense 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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