Arouca vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Farense — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Arouca
POR
1-3
HT 1-1
Arouca
POK
Arouca 2-2 Farense — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca and Farense shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arouca had 61% of the ball to Farense's 39%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.70 to 0.91.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Arouca and 1.20 for Farense.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Farense?
Arouca 2-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Farense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arouca 44%, draw 30%, Farense 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.