Farense 0-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

Farense
0-1 HT 0-1
Arouca
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Farense vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.23
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.64 — our 26% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.96
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
13%
5.78
X/2
11%
5.35
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.55
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.27/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.28
-8% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
24.3 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Farense vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.05 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
225 Passes 424
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
06.11.2023 Farense Farense 2-0 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.10.2018 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POK

Farense 0-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
0-1
AWAY Arouca
1.24 xG 0.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 6
244 Passes 288
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Farense vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over Farense 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Farense had 47% of the ball to Arouca's 53%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.24 to 0.64 — on chances, Farense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Farense and 1.67 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Farense vs Arouca?

Farense 0-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Farense 32%, draw 28%, Arouca 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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