Arouca vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Farense — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Arouca
POR
1-3
HT 1-1
Arouca
POK
Arouca 1-2 Farense — Actual Match Statistics
Farense nicked a narrow win over Arouca 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arouca had 62% of the ball to Farense's 38%, shots finished 15-4.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Farense.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Farense?
Arouca 1-2 Farense in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Farense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arouca 44%, draw 27%, Farense 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.