Arouca 1-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.21
6+ Goals
10%
20.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.65
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
19%
4.3
X/2
9%
7.99
X/X
14%
4.24
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
12%
6.38
2/X
4%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 27%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -48%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 1.78
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
379 Passes 231
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2024 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
30.03.2024 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
06.11.2023 Farense Farense 2-0 HT 2-0 Arouca Arouca POR
21.10.2018 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-2
AWAY Farense
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 0
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense nicked a narrow win over Arouca 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arouca had 62% of the ball to Farense's 38%, shots finished 15-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Farense.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Farense?

Arouca 1-2 Farense in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arouca 44%, draw 27%, Farense 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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