Alverca 2-2 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2024

Alverca
2-2 HT 1-0
Rio Ave
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Alverca vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
4.45
6+ Goals
11%
23.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.45 — our 27% vs market 17.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alverca v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
265 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Alverca vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
The Meetings
24.11.2019 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POK
16.02.2004 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 1-2 Alverca Alverca POR
21.09.2003 Alverca Alverca 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Alverca 2-2 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
2-2
AWAY Rio Ave
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 10
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca and Rio Ave couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Alverca had 34% of the ball to Rio Ave's 66%, shots finished 11-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alverca and 0.67 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Rio Ave?

Alverca 2-2 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Alverca 34%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 40%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rio Ave) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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