Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
26%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.27
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
67%
-15.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
26%
Away Win
12%
+13.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 15%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.22/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/1.11
-10% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +140%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
439 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
9 Corners 6
21.04.2012 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
11.12.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.02.2011 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.09.2010 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
26.02.2010 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
28.09.2009 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-0
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes beat Uniao De Leiria 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 42% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 58%, shots finished 11-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.83 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Uniao De Leiria?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 51%, draw 23%, Uniao De Leiria 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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