Leixoes 0-2 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
55%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.76
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
27%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.2pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
55%
Away Win
63%
-8.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 67%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.99/2.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.48/0.91
+2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / -8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
259 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
10.07.2018 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-2 HT 1-1 Leixoes Leixoes HAZ
17.04.2010 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-1 HT 2-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
05.12.2009 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
14.02.2009 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
21.09.2008 Leixoes Leixoes 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
30.03.2008 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
0-2
AWAY Sporting Braga
40% Ball Possession 60%
3 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga got the better of Leixoes 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Leixoes had 40% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 60%, shots finished 3-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leixoes and 0.83 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Sporting Braga?

Leixoes 0-2 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Cup on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 22%, draw 23%, Sporting Braga 55%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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