Fenerbahçe 3-1 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 5 Feb 2026

📅05/02/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
80%
1.16
Draw
12%
7.78
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.14
Over 2.5
64%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.96
No
42%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.45
2-3 Goals
37%
2.27
4-5 Goals
29%
2.39
6+ Goals
16%
4.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.25
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
3%
31.0
X/1
27%
4.0
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
5%
12.75
2/1 EV+ ✓
11%
22.25
2/2
3%
29.0
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
80%
Home Win
82%
-3.0pp
12%
Draw
10%
+1.5pp
8%
Away Win
7%
+1.5pp
36%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
47%
+10.9pp
42%
BTTS No
53%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
3.40/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/3.81
+29% / +136% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -31%
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
2.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
2.87 xG 0.71
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
444 Passes 306
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2025 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TÜK
03.05.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-1 HT 3-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
11.01.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-3 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
20.05.2019 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
17.12.2018 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-2 HT 2-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe saw off Erzurumspor FK 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 80%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.80 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.60 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?

Fenerbahçe 3-1 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - Cup on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 80%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 80%, draw 12%, Erzurumspor FK 8%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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