Peterborough Sports 1-4 Hereford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.88
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 33% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough Sports EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.48/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.15
+11% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough Sports
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Hereford FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Peterborough Sports Peterborough Sports İCON
15.04.2023 Peterborough Sports Peterborough Sports 0-2 HT 0-1 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
15.11.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough Sports Peterborough Sports İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough Sports
1-4
AWAY Hereford FC
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough Sports vs Hereford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hereford FC cruised past Peterborough Sports 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Hereford FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Peterborough Sports had 52% of the ball to Hereford FC's 48%, shots finished 10-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Peterborough Sports had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Peterborough Sports and 0.67 for Hereford FC.

What was the final score of Peterborough Sports vs Hereford FC?

Peterborough Sports 1-4 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough Sports vs Hereford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough Sports win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Peterborough Sports 39%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 35%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough Sports) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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