Spennymoor Town 2-1 Alfreton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.56
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 35% vs market 32.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
+0.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spennymoor Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Alfreton Town EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.27/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.35
-5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spennymoor Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Alfreton Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.03.2023 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 3-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
16.08.2022 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
29.01.2022 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 3-2 HT 2-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
06.11.2021 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
10.10.2020 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
22.02.2020 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 5-0 HT 1-0 Alfreton Town Alfreton Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spennymoor Town
2-1
AWAY Alfreton Town
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spennymoor Town squeezed past Alfreton Town 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Spennymoor Town made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spennymoor Town had 44% of the ball to Alfreton Town's 56%, shots finished 9-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alfreton Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Spennymoor Town and 1.50 for Alfreton Town.

What was the final score of Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town?

Spennymoor Town 2-1 Alfreton Town in the England - Conference on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spennymoor Town vs Alfreton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spennymoor Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Spennymoor Town 36%, draw 30%, Alfreton Town 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spennymoor Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spennymoor Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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