Mansfield Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Mar 2024

Mansfield Town
1-2 HT 1-1
Milton Keynes Dons
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.32
6+ Goals
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
19%
4.29
X/2
9%
8.28
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.6
2/2
13%
6.15
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -35%
1.82/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.64
+19% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / -25%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 68%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.6 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mansfield Town
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
The Meetings
04.05.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
27.10.2018 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
21.07.2015 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons HAZ
01.01.2008 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
02.10.2007 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
20.02.2007 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2

Mansfield Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mansfield Town
1-2
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
2.51 xG 0.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
23 Total Shots 17
11 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
320 Passes 391
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons squeezed past Mansfield Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mansfield Town at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Mansfield Town had 47% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 53%, shots finished 23-17, expected goals 2.51 to 0.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mansfield Town.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mansfield Town and 1.17 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Mansfield Town 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mansfield Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mansfield Town 47%, draw 26%, Milton Keynes Dons 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mansfield Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mansfield Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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