Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Mar 2024

Morecambe
1-0 HT 0-0
Crawley Town
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Morecambe vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.98
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
4.95
X/2
8%
6.7
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
11%
24.85
2/2
14%
4.56
2/X
5%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +0%
1.74/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.47
-10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
253 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 67%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
21.7 Crosses 15.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Morecambe vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.45
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
150 Passes 260
60% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
02.03.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
17.10.2020 Crawley Town Crawley Town 4-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
16.11.2019 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
30.03.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
15.09.2018 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-0
AWAY Crawley Town
1.55 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
156 Passes 269
62% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 35
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe nicked a narrow win over Crawley Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Morecambe as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Morecambe had 40% of the ball to Crawley Town's 60%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.55 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Morecambe and 1.50 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Crawley Town?

Morecambe 1-0 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 44%, draw 28%, Crawley Town 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Morecambe) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Morecambe) ✗ BTTS Yes
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