PSG 0-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.56
No
40%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
2.99
6+ Goals
13%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.33
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
11%
12.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
21%
5.64
X/2
14%
6.38
X/X
10%
4.95
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
12%
4.04
2/X
5%
12.2
Value flag · X/1 at 5.64 — our 21% vs market 13.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.3pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 37%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
2.05/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.58
+98% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 78%
40.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
17.8 Crosses 16.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Liverpool
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.18 xG 1.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 9
374 Passes 423
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 30
6 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.11.2018 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
18.09.2018 Liverpool Liverpool 3-2 HT 2-1 PSG PSG ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
0-1
AWAY Liverpool
1.78 xG 0.27
70% Ball Possession 30%
27 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
629 Passes 220
91% Pass Accuracy 75%
52 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSG vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool nicked a narrow win over PSG 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was PSG at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PSG had 70% of the ball to Liverpool's 30%, shots finished 27-2, expected goals 1.78 to 0.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured PSG.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 2.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of PSG vs Liverpool?

PSG 0-1 Liverpool in the Champions League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PSG 41%, draw 25%, Liverpool 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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