PSG vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PSG v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals
PSG vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Liverpool
ŞMP
3-2
HT 2-1
PSG
ŞMP
PSG 0-1 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics
Liverpool nicked a narrow win over PSG 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was PSG at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, PSG had 70% of the ball to Liverpool's 30%, shots finished 27-2, expected goals 1.78 to 0.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured PSG.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 2.00 for Liverpool.
What was the final score of PSG vs Liverpool?
PSG 0-1 Liverpool in the Champions League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for PSG vs Liverpool?
Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split PSG 41%, draw 25%, Liverpool 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.