Bayern Münih 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.55
2-3 Goals
47%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.24
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
22%
4.35
X/2
5%
9.24
X/X
9%
5.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.55
2/2
13%
7.12
2/X
8%
15.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
53%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 25%
+20% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
2.36/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.94
+21% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -38%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
423 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 84%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
14.4 Crosses 16.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
504 Passes 355
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.02.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
03.12.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
28.09.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
10.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
15.09.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.03.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-0
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.68 xG 0.35
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
480 Passes 232
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 5
18 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih ran out comfortable winners over Bayer Leverkusen 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 65% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 35%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 2.68 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayern Münih 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 52%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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